All In The Cards: Neither Passing Nor Failing The First Test (Week 4 Recap)

Welcome to the week four recap! I think that for now on I’ll stick to a straight rundown format for these as they are easier and quicker for me to write. That means I can possibly post these on Tuesdays and Hoosiers In The NBA on Mondays, but we’ll see if that holds true once the NBA season starts. However, let’s get back to the NFL and see how I did with my week four picks. I hope you enjoy and if you do make sure to follow me on Twitter @QTipsforsports or just search the hashtag #Allinthecards for in-game thoughts and analysis:

How I did with NFl Week 4 Predictions:

  • St. Louis 24, Arizona 22: The Cards faced their first test of the season and even though they lost I wouldn’t say they failed that test. Sure it wasn’t worthy of being placed on the kitchen fridge but it was still somewhere between a C- and a B-. Arizona’s offense could move the ball with ease and the defense basically shut down the Rams for most of the game on drives that didn’t follow turnovers. It was the intangibles that lost the Cards this game. Turnovers are always an uncontrollable variable, but the Cardinals performance in the redzone is what really cost them. The best way to explain how a team that scored 11 touchdowns in 12 prior redzone trips is that the first few stops affected the Cards psychologically and thus prevented them from succeeding the rest of the game. (30-19)
  • Baltimore 23, Pittsburgh 17: I wanted to give up on the Ravens but the matchup (Steelers on a short week and playing their first game without Ben Roethlisberger) was too good to pass up. I’ll give credit to Michael Vick, he did an adequate job filling in at quarterback. It’s hard for a quarterback who came in just a month ago to run an offense as intricate as Todd Haley’s scheme. However, there’s no doubt this game would have been too far out of reach for a Ravens comeback if Big Ben was on the field. (31-19)
  • New York Jets 27, Miami 14: For everyone who took my advice to start Chris Ivory in fantasy football (29 carries, 166 yards and 1 TD) you are welcome. With the Bills playing inconsistently, could it be the Jets who have moved into the spot of Patriots opposition for the AFC East? You know, the position we thought the Dolphins would be at the beginning of the season. (32-19)
  • Atlanta 48, Houston 21: I called this Atlanta’s first easy game of the season but I wasn’t thinking that the Falcons would be leading 42-0 after three quarters. The Falcons offense has really found a spark with Devonta Freeman in the backfield, which is bad news for Tevin Coleman when he finally returns from his rib injury. Coleman did win the job during the preseason so there is a chance they’ll just split carries, but I wonder if Freeman has already done enough during the last two weeks to take full control of the job. (33-19)
  • New York Giants 24, Buffalo 10: With the Eagles a mess, the Cowboys struggling since they lost Tony Romo, and the Redskins only being a decent team, I think the Giants proved they are in control of the NFC East after they took care of business in Buffalo against a pretty good Bills team. That’s right, I still think the Bills are good; they’re just inconsistent. (33-20)
  • Chicago 22, Oakland 20: This is one of the rare times where both teams come away from a game satisfied with their performance. The Raiders tenacity continues to impress me and the Bears resolve after the Jay Cutler fourth quarter interception shows real progress. Also I feel happy for Cutler being able to make up for his interception by leading the offense down the field for the game-winning field goal. (33-21)
  • Cincinnati 36, Kansas City 21: I still feel like no one really respects the Bengals as much as they should. What’s sad is the Bengals will probably have to beat the Seahawks this week to get that respect, which is unfair considering what they have accomplished so far this season. Also Gio Bernard and Jeremy Hill might be the best young running back duo in the NFL. (34-21)
  • Indianapolis 16, Jacksonville 13 (OT): I expected a blowout but given the fact the Colts were without Andrew Luck I’ll give them a pass. What I learned from this game is that the Colts are really lucky to have a backup of Matt Hasselbeck’s caliber and that having a reliable kicker is a lot more important to a team’s success than we give credit. (35-21)
  • Washington 23, Philadelphia 20*: What if I told you that I had a sports almanac from the future and used it to make this pick similar to how Biff made his fortune in Back To The Future 2? In all seriousness, I knew that this Redskins team was better than how they played against the Giants last week and that this Eagles team is a complete mess. However I did get really lucky with my second perfect score prediction of the season. (36-21)
  • Carolina 37, Tampa Bay 23: Jameis Winston set a lot of career-highs in this game: completions (26), pass attempts (43), passing yards (287) and tied a career-high in touchdown passes (2). He also threw a career-worst four interceptions. He’s made some improvements, but every scout who said Winston would be a turnover machine have been proven right so far. Meanwhile, it looks like Josh Norman is on his way to a career year and may be worthy of some defensive player of the year discussion if he keeps it up. (37-21)
  • San Diego 30, Cleveland 27: It is so unfortunate that this game had to end with the Browns jumping offside on a missed field goal because it overshadowed a really good game. Philip Rivers continues to put the Chargers on his back, this time to the tune of 358 passing yards and three touchdowns. (38-21)
  • Denver 23, Minnesota 20: The Broncos are continuing to prove they are a great overall TEAM. In previous years, if Peyton Manning only threw for 213 yards and had two interceptions that would spell defeat for Denver but now the Broncos defense can relieve some of the pressure off of Manning’s shoulders. Meanwhile Adrian Peterson leads the NFL in rushing with 372 yards, which means the leading rusher isn’t even averaging 100 yards a game. (39-21)
  • Green Bay 17, San Francisco 3: Surprised the Packers didn’t put up more points but the story is Colin Kaepernick. I know the 49ers meant well when they decided to narrow the offensive playbook down but you can tell that defenses are able read the plays so easily now, thus making Kaepernick ineffective. I don’t know the ramifications of complicating an offense in-season but they may have to do it as the offense is to predictable right now.(40-21)
  • New Orleans 26, Dallas 20: First off congrats too Drew Brees on his 400th career touchdown. To believe that 10 years ago we were wondering if his arm injury would cut his career short makes this even sweeter. As for the Cowboys, while it is true that they have been struggling without Tony Romo, don’t blame these two losses on Brandon Weeden. The Cowboys defense has performed considerably worse the last two games. (41-21)
  • Seattle 13, Detroit 10: Have you ever met that one person who always gets their way regardless of if they deserve it or not? Sure I’m bitter about the missed illegal batting call probably giving a ton of momentum to the Seahawks’ season but what’s really sad is that it came at the expense of basically ending the Lions season after just four weeks. (42-21)

Week 4 Record: 12-3
Season Record: 42-21
Perfect Score Predictions: 2

 

All In The Cards: The Roster Needed To Succeed (Week 1 Recap)

I’m trying.

I’m trying really hard this season to have a realistic view of my Arizona Cardinals. Ever since their appearance in Super Bowl XLIII, every year I somehow convince myself that this is the year the Cardinals will win the Super Bowl. My delusions have been so insane that at one time or another I convinced myself that Matt Leinart and Kevin Kolb were good quarterbacks capable of leading the Cards to a Lombardi Trophy. Look, I was young and naïve back then. I’m an adult now and I need to face reality: sometimes you just don’t have the roster to succeed.

I’m not 100% sure the Cardinals have the roster to succeed this season. They did last year but injuries crippled them to the point that the roster that was set to succeed was unrecognizable by season’s end. The Cardinals have a couple less standouts this season (no more Antonio Cromartie), but what they do have over last year’s team is depth. When an injured Andre Ellington had to finally bow out for the rest of the season, a run game on life support died. We are through only one week of this season and the Cards face the same situation: generating a run game without Ellington. This time they were prepared. They drafted David Johnson out of Northern Iowa in the third round of the NFL Draft. They took a flier on the once great Chris Johnson. When Ellington went out in the fourth quarter, Chris Johnson was called upon to help run out the clock. He ran the ball seven times in that final quarter for 30 yards, including a 12 yard run on his first rush attempt after Ellington left. Then David Johnson sealed the game with a huge 55 yard receiving touchdown in the final minute. Without both of them, the Cards wouldn’t have been able to burn time off the clock and guarantee the victory.

The Cards’ approach this past offseason was to add quality depth so that what happened last year wouldn’t happen again this season. I know that sounds like the rational thing to do but you’d be surprised how many sports franchises are too stubborn to admit their mistakes and thus end up making them again. To see the Cardinals acknowledge their mistakes and spend all offseason correcting them makes me feel proud to be fan.

However there is still one problem that hasn’t been solved: what happens to the offense if Carson Palmer goes down again. Palmer looked amazing against the Saints, throwing for 307 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. He was able to scramble in the pocket to buy some time for his receivers to get open. Less than a year removed from a major leg injury and with two starting linemen out, Palmer was not sacked one time. Granted the Saints pass rush is average at best, but he was never sacked and only hit a few times, which he took very well. Drew Stanton used to be an acceptable backup because because both going into last season had similar skills. That’s not the case anymore. Palmer‘s improved arm strength and pocket presence makes the 2015 Arizona Cardinals a roster that can succeed. Without him this team can’t succeed. I can guarantee that Palmer will not get a single MVP vote this season, but if the Cards succeed he’ll be their most valuable player.

I’m not going to delude myself into thinking Palmer will definitely lead the Cards to a Super Bowl win this season, but a healthy Palmer makes the possibility real.

Some Card Numbers:

  • Who says Larry Fitzgerald is washed up? Fitzgerald happily accepted having Carson Palmer back and hauled in six catches for 87 yards to lead the Cards in receiving. The 87 receiving yards is the most he’s had in a season opener since he had 133 yards on nine catches against the San Francisco 49ers all the way back in 2006. Also worth noting is that four of Fitzgerald’s six catches went for first downs.
  • One last Fitzgerald note and what will be a running counter on this article: Fitzgerald extended his consecutive games with a catch streak to 164, which is the longest active streak in the NFL.
  • While throwing for 307 yards, Carson Palmer passed Jim Kelly for 21st on the all-time passing yards list.
  • The Cardinals have now won their last four home openers. Speaking of home games, the Cards are now 14-3 at home under Bruce Arians.
  • Last year the Cardinals had one of the best fourth quarter differentials in the NFL. This year they are already off to a great start with a +8 differential.

How I Did With Week 1 Predictions:

  • Arizona 31, New Orleans 19: Without Jimmy Graham to occupy a safety’s attention, the Cardinals secondary was able to neutralize the Saints wide receivers for the most part. Saints Head Coach Sean Payton cleverly countered by calling a bunch of screen passes, which really bothered the Cardinals defense all day. With Matt Forte and the Chicago Bears coming up next week, the Cards defense better practice their screen coverage. (1-0)
  • New England 28, Pittsburgh 21: This game feels like it was an eternity ago but New England prevailed because Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are still on their A-game, Rob Gronkowski is unstoppable, and because Pittsburgh couldn’t communicate with each other (Just kidding on that last one). (Season Record: 2-0)
  • Buffalo 27, Indianapolis 14: I knew the Bills would be good (Rex Ryan teams always come to play) but the way they handled the Colts really surprised me. Even though the season just started the Colts need to turn things around quickly, especially with rumors of Coach Chuck Pagano being on the hot seat. (2-1)
  • Green Bay 31, Chicago 23: The Bears pleasantly surprised me with their performance against the Packers, coming very close to pulling off the win. Unfortunately the often-maligned Jay Cutler just became a little more maligned. Rodgers, 189 passing yards and three passing touchdowns, also showed why he’s the reigning MVP. (3-1)
  • New York Jets 31, Cleveland 10: What made Todd Bowles such a great defensive coordinator for the Cardinals was his ability to make perfect halftime adjustments. Fitting that he would get his first win as a head coach by having his Jets shutout out the Browns and force three turnovers in the second half. The Jets have some scary injuries but overall both this season and the future look bright. (4-1)
  • Kansas City 27, Houston 20: For most of the game I was wrong about the Texans, but then in the 4th quarter when Ryan Mallett took over I didn’t look as foolish. Also DeAndre Hopkins is a beast and should be considered as a cheaper alternative in fantasy leagues where you choose a new team on a weekly basis. I’m still taking a wait-and-see approach on Travis Kelce’s long-term fantasy impact. (4-2)
  • Louis 34, Seattle 31 (OT): I’m really kicking myself for not sticking to my gut and picking the Rams. The Rams always push NFC West teams to the limit and the Seahawks were vulnerable without Kam Chancellor. I worry about Seattle’s psyche going forward, especially after the botched onside kick and failed Marshawn Lynch fourth down run. (4-3)
  • Miami 17, Washington 10: This game was a lot closer than I thought which either means good news for the Redskins or bad news for the Dolphins. Also Jarvis Landry’s punt return touchdown was one of the best I have ever seen. Just the way he made it look so easy amazes me. (5-3)
  • Carolina 20, Jacksonville 9: I still stand by what I said about the Panthers offense needing some time but I’ll admit I didn’t give enough credit to their defense before making my pick. We’ll see if they can maintain this level if Luke Kuechly misses a lot of time due to his concussion. Also I may have overestimated the Jaguars’ progress. Still looks like there is a long way to go. (5-4)
  • San Diego 33, Detroit 28: Even though I called the Lions’ choke job, that doesn’t mean I’m proud of it. I was really hoping they would prove me wrong and start the season off on a high note, but instead they throw away a 21-3 first half lead. On the positive side, Keenan Allen started his third season off with a bang after he fell well short of expectations last season. If he can be a go-to receiver for Philip Rivers then the Chargers season suddenly looks more promising. (6-4)
  • Cincinnati 33, Oakland 13: The outcome was even bleaker for the Raiders than I predicted, barely avoiding a shutout with a couple of garbage time touchdowns. The Bengals made a huge statement in this game, telling everyone who picked Pittsburgh or Baltimore to win the division that they still hold the crown and they aren’t going away. (7-4)
  • Denver 19, Baltimore 13: I’m still trying to wrap my brain around the fact that not a single offensive touchdown was scored in this game. While both defenses played at an elite level you can’t help but wonder if this is a sign of things to come, especially for Peyton Manning who has now gone without a touchdown pass in three of his last five games. (8-4)
  • Tennessee 42, Tampa Bay 14: It seems former Cardinals and current Titans Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt finally has a quarterback that he can properly gameplan around. Since the retirement of Kurt Warner, Coach Whiz has had the worst luck with starting quarterbacks but Marcus Mariota looks to have a bright future ahead of him. I’m not about to bury Jameis Winston but the performance really showcased his flaws. (8-5)
  • Dallas 27, New York Giants 26: This game was pure craziness. I definitely feel that Tony Romo’s reputation for choking in the fourth quarter is overblown and that he’s actually one of the better late-game quarterbacks. Both teams should have good seasons so I can’t wait for the rematch. Hopefully it will be just as entertaining. (8-6)
  • Atlanta 26, Philadelphia 24: I knew that the Eagles running game would be overhyped but I never expected a combined 11 carries for 13 yards from DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews. Matt Ryan excelled under new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan just like I expected, and Julio Jones (nine receptions for 141 yards and two touchdowns) is earning every penny of that new contract. Also shout out to former Indiana Hoosier Tevin Coleman for gaining 80 yards off 20 carries in his first NFL game. (9-6)
  • San Francisco 20, Minnesota 3: I’ve watched the Cardinals defense go up against Carlos Hyde a couple of times and I never would have imagined he would have a game like he did last night. Hyde’s 168 rushing yards and two touchdowns should be a great comfort for the 49ers and their fanbase which has gone through a lot of turnover and turmoil over the past year. Also I am dumbfounded by how underwhelming the Vikings performed. (9-7)